Burma’s Aung San Suu Kyi | Lessons from Dalai Lama

Home \| Thailand Lawyer Blog \| Thailand Law News \| Court Opinions \| Thailand Law Journal \| Thailand Laws Database \| Thailand Lawyers \| Articles
Quick Links: Thailand Law Seminars and Conference \| Thai Law Forum Past Issues \| About Thailand Law Forum \| Advertising Guidelines \| Publishing Guidelines

Contribution:

The Thailand Law Forum receives support from Chaninat and Leeds, a full practice law firm in Bangkok staffing US attorneys specializing in child custody law in Thailand.

Challenges Ahead for Aung San and Democracy in Burma
By Eric Borgman

tweet

14 January 2011

Another challenge Suu Kyi faces is over economic sanctions. In the past she has supported sanctions against the regime along with most in the Burmese exile community. Some contend, however, that sanctions have clearly failed as the regime is as firmly entrenched as ever. What they have accomplished is an increase in the suffering of the Burmese people and given the regime an excuse as to why their economic policies have failed so miserably. Removing sanctions could open up an isolated Burma to the outside world, which could serve to slowly soften the regime as it sees the benefits of a freer society. On the other hand, with no alternative to sanctions open to the international community short of military action, lifting them could be seen as acceptance of the status quo. There is no question that lifting the sanctions would help the generals. Suu Kyi has said she would reconsider her support for sanctions.

Perhaps Suu Kyi’sgreatest challenge will be how to engage with the regime. She must maintain a fine line between making compromises with the generals that do not betray her democratic principles while at the same time being careful not to provoke the regime into imprisoning her once again. She has called for a political dialogue with the junta leader Senior General Than Shwe but if the generals reject her offer her options will be limited. A Western diplomat in Rangoon was quoted, "Everyone's fear is that she offers national-reconciliation talks with the generals, and they don't respond. Then she gets frustrated, ups the ante and ends up getting arrested again because she's crossed some invisible line." The main problem is that the generals will not face serious consequences if they do refuse. They already face sanctions and are shunned in the international community. It is impossible not to believe the regime released Suu Kyi because now, after the elections, it believes its own version of “democratic reform” is complete and that she is no longer a threat to power. If somehow this proves otherwise the regime can always imprison her again.

Burma has changed a great deal since Suu Kyi was first imprisoned and another one of her challenges is to recognize this change and adapt. Over the last 20 years, although impoverished, isolated internationally, and under economic sanctions due to its repressive military regime, Burma has grown in importance due to its wealth of natural recourses such as oil, gas, and minerals. Burma is also important geographically being strategically located between Asian rivals India and China. Power politics have often trumped whatever moral qualms countries in the region have had about dealing with the regime and thus today Burma finds itself important to the region, even though it is still isolated. Thailand maintains good relations with Burma, despite it’s horrific human rights record, given the growing importance of the country in the region. According to Thailand business attorneys, Burma’s abundant natural resources have enabled it to lure in business from the outside world.

Burmese historian and UN official Thant Myint-U says that it would be easier for Suu Kyi to focus on economic change and development because economics shapes politics in Burma as it does elsewhere. A larger middle class in Burma, one of the world’s poorest countries, would change the political dynamics. Although still in control of the economy, the junta has privatized previously state-controlled ports, airways and highways. Mines and oil and gas pipelines to China are now also being built. This has and will continue to change Burmese society and politics can no longer be the sole focus.

China poses a significant challenge to Suu Kyi and democracy activists in Burma as well. As mentioned previously, China has long been an important supporter of Burma, making it more difficult for the rest of the international community to ramp up pressure on the regime. Due to its quest for natural resources abroad in order to maintain its domestic economic growth at home, China has been investing heavily in Burma, which has undermined sanctions and helped enrich the ruling generals. Since 1998, China has sold Burma over $2 billion dollars worth of military weapons and equipment such as fighter jets, tanks, and armed personnel carriers. In 2007 Burma struck a deal to provide China with 180 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 20 years at a discounted price in exchange for international political support. China is also one of the largest investors in Burma and one of its largest trading partners.

As long as China is willing to make deals with the military regime, economic sanctions will have little effect. China, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has also been able to block or water down UN resolutions meant to pressure the regime. The reality is China’s relations with Burma have strengthened the military junta greatly and make China one of the biggest enemies of democracy in Burma.

The Future of Democracy in Burma

It is impossible to predict what will happen next but sweeping political change remains unlikely. The military junta is still solidly in control despite the elections, the new parliament, and Aung San Suu Kyi’s freedom. Suu Kyi will likely choose to remain in Burma as she has these past 22 years because she believes the people there need her most. As she has indicated in interviews, she will strike a reconciliatory tone with the ruling generals, at least at first, in order to open a political reform dialogue. Additionally, she said she does not want the ruling generals to be brought before an international court for crimes against humanity. “I’ve never said I want them to be brought into the international court,” she said according to the New York Times. “I don’t think there is any solid reason for the generals to fear for their safety. We are not after them personally. I certainly do not wish them ill.”² This tone might change, of course, if her overtures for a dialogue are rebuffed.

Some also believe she will stick to her principles of non-violence as she has already said she “would like a non-violent, peaceful revolution.” She was also quoted as saying the change she wants is a “change for the better from the point of view of human rights and democratic institutions.” Perhaps surprisingly she said regime change was not her goal. According to her, “What we want is value change. Regime change can be temporary, but value change is a long-term business. We want the values in our country to be changed. We want a sound foundation for change.”³ This indicates she will take up the human rights and development approach at first because the regime might find this less threating.

Discussing her own political future, Suu Kyi said, “I’m not very much concerned whether I personally come to power, but I am concerned about the power of the people.”⁴ Suu Kyi will most likely begin traveling around the country again as she did during her last period of freedom in 2003 in an attempt to rally the opposition, including Burma’s diverse minority population. Soon after her release Suu Kyi began the legal process to get the NLD unbanned, but it is doubtful the courts will rule in her favor.

Under house arrest Suu Kyi was a beacon of hope. With her freedom comes the responsibility of being a leader and all the difficult challenges that come with it. The reality of the situation is even if the regime does open a political dialogue with Suu Kyi, there is no reason to believe that it would not just be political theater as it has been in the past. Unfortunately, it is not Suu Kyi who is in control but the military junta, which has shown zero desire to loosen their grip on power. In the end it will be much less Suu Kyi’s actions that determine Burma’s fate as those of the ruling generals.

Related Articles and Documents:

Neither Free nor Fair: Burma’s Sham Elections

Burmese Migrants in Thailand: An Overview and Analysis

Constitution of Myanmar

The 2010 Election in Burma - A Hopeless Avenue for Human Rights

Burma and the Common Law

Sources:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/world/asia/24myanmar.html?scp=1&sq=Aung%20San%20Suu%20Kyi&st=cse

http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-and-burmese-sanctions/?scp=2&sq=Aung%20San%20Suu%20Kyi&st=cse

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/world/asia/17myanmar.html?scp=3&sq=Aung%20San%20Suu%20Kyi&st=cse

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11685977

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/28/rumble_in_the_junta?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2031990,00.html